What about Ray Durham?

I'm a Ray Durham fan. One of my Giants jerseys has his name and number on it. I like his game. He's a solid hitter, able to hit for average, hit for some power, and he has speed.

Defensively, he's nothing to write home about, but he's not exactly a statue, either. When he doesn't make errors, he's solid. When he's having mental lapses in the field, he's just adequate. He does, however, turn a very nice double play, something which I think is a bit overlooked in his game. He's no Lou Whitaker, but if there's a way to turn two, he'll do his best to do whatever it takes to turn it.

He makes quite a bit of money (over seven million this season) and has a player option for next year (about seven million as well), so it's very likely he'll be back. Is this a good thing for the Giants? Let's take a look at some things and perhaps we can see.

1.) Injuries - It's a worry, sure, but one thing that has gone unnoticed in the past few years is that Durham was...durable in all of his years previous to his stint with the Giants -- the only time he was below 150 games was his rookie season, where he played 125. What's been overlooked a bit this year is that he's increasing his games played every year, from 110 in 2003, to 120 in 2004, and he's on pace for about 140. Something to think about, sure, but not anything that should make or break a decision one way or another.

2.) Defense - Something else that's a bit of a worry. Out of 16 major league second baseman, Durham is 12th in fielding percentage (of note, Jeff Kent and Alfonso Soriano are even lower), 14th in range factor (note that Soriano is 13th and Kent is 7th), and he is 11th in zone rating (Soriano is 12th and Kent is 14th).

So worry, yes. But panic? No. First of all, I personally do not totally buy into defensive stats as of yet. They tell a story, but I don't think they can be taken at face value. The reason why I kept track of Soriano and Kent is to show examples of players who are making as much or more than Durham, yet whose defensive statistics aren't all that great, either.

3.) Offense - Not a worry, right? Durham's back in form, right? Well...no. This, too, is a bit of a worry.

Durham's stats this year (.299/.369/.435) look right about where they should be. 804 OPS this year, 790 OPS for his career. But there are a few worries that may or may not have an impact on him for next season:

• Age. He'll be 34 in November, so there's got to be a bit of concern about his age and how that might affect him playing a demanding position like 2nd base. This could be a bit of a factor behind his nagging injuries -- we've all seen the virtual elimination of Durham being a threat to steal a base during his tenure in San Francisco, and much of this is due to the fact that a lot of his nagging injuries are leg/groin based -- much of the time it's a bit inadvisable for Durham to run all out more than necessary.
• One funky stat for Durham this year is the large drop in pitches per plate appearance (p/pa). It's usually around 4.00 -- a good indicator that he's a patient hitter. This year, it's dropped to 3.48, which is more the type of p/pa that hitters like Pedro Feliz have (3.40 p/pa this year for Feliz). Does it mean anything? Doubtful, really, because he still walks at a decent rate, but it's an unusual blip at this stage of his career. I don't know if any correlation has been made between aging players and their p/pa as they get older, but it wouldn't surprise me if that number goes down a bit as players age.
• One thing I really liked about Durham's game the last few years has been his groundball to flyball ratio (g/f ratio), which has averaged about 1.04 the three seasons previous to this one -- indicating that it's likely Durham was hitting a lot of line drives, which is a sign of a good hitter. This year, it's jumped to 1.41 thus far. Worry? Well, maybe. He's been this high before, several times as a matter of fact. It hasn't seemed to have much affect on his production (it's 1.32 for his career), but again, as he's aging it could mean something. Not seeing many pitches and hitting significantly more ground balls than fly balls isn't exactly a recipe for success.

So overall? All the signs are that Durham is fine right now, but there are a lot of little things to think about with him, which for me, adds up to a larger worry.

I'm thinking the best idea for the team's longer term future (as in 2 years +) is probably to trade Durham over the winter while he still looks like a decent 2nd baseman. He doesn't have a no-trade clause, so in effect a team would be trading for only one year of Durham -- something that I think would be fairly attractive to a lot of teams looking for a bit of help to get into or further into contention. This would save the Giants a large chunk of change and should bring back a couple of prospects, although it would create an immediate hole at 2nd that the Giants wouldn't be able to fill in-house. That leaves free agency...and even more questions, because the free agency field looks something like this (courtesy of MLB4U.com) :

Bret Boone
Carlos Baerga
Damion Easley
Fernando Vina (Expected to retire)
Frank Menechino (Team Option)(arbitration)
Tony Graffanino
Todd Walker (Team + Player options)
Eric Young (Team Option)
Damian Jackson
Ronnie Belliard (Team Option)
Manny Alexander
Marlon Anderson
Mark Grudzielanek
Pokey Reese (Team Option)
Miguel Cairo
Roberto Alomar (Retired)
Enrique Wilson
Denny Hocking
Dave Berg
Joe McEwing

Ouch. That's painful to even look at.

So the best thing for the team to do short term (as in 2006)? It looks like keeping Durham is really the best option for right now, which is fine by me -- because I'm a Ray Durham fan.

Deivi Cruz trade

Deivi Cruz was traded, as was Jason Christiansen. I don't know to who, or to where, but I do know Brian Sabean got minor league pitching in return.

I'd search a little harder, but I'm too lazy -- plus I know one of my fellow bloggers will be all over it by tomorrow morning, if not tonight.

I'll just sit back and do an analysis after I find out the names involved...of course, getting anything for Christiansen has to be viewed as positive.

EDIT: Okay, I lied, I'm not too lazy to look for it. Here's the scoop.

I wish Sabean had gotten a starter out of it, but perhaps he couldn't swing it. Two of the three pitchers acquired are 21 and 23, respectively, which is good. The other guy is 27, and is probably going to be some depth for the bullpen next season.

I forgot this about last night's game...

I may have some latent frustrations with Father Alou and his love of sacrifice bunts.

I'm much too lazy to research them all, but I've seen him sacrifice as early as the third inning, and I've seen him sacrifice with hitters like Ray Durham and now, Todd Linden.

Let me qualify. I'm not totally against the sacrifice:

1. With a poor hitting pitcher.
2. When you're down by one run in the 9th facing a dominant closer with no outs.
3. When you're in the 9th and you're up by four runs and trying to put the game out of reach.

The last two, for me, are dependant upon the hitter at the plate -- those are fine with a poor, even non-pitcher hitter at the plate. But with anybody who's any good or has any power, throw those out of the window.

Alou had Linden sacrifice last night with no outs in the 7th inning, and the Giants down by a run. Let's review my stipulations and compare them with the aforementioned situation to see if I am justified in my irritation:

1. Linden is not a poor hitting pitcher.
2. They were down by one run, but it wasn't the 9th and they weren't facing anyone dominant (having a dominant game, yes, but that's another point for later)
3. The Giants weren't up on the Rockies.

So, yes, I'm irritated. Now, to qualify further, Linden had looked terrible against Rockies starter Byung-Hyun Kim in his first two at-bats, so there was an added reason why Felipe used the sacrifice in that situation. Felipe also thought, obviously, that runs would be a premium tonight against Kim, as he'd only allowed one run against the Giants to that point. He wanted to put the Giants in position to tie the game, thus allowing them to have a better chance to win. Only problems are:

1. Sacrificing a man to 2nd base (as Linden was doing) is much, much worse than to 3rd. You still are very likely to need a hit to drive the run home, and you would need the right kind of hit -- hard hit singles right at an outfielder might not get it done, and an infield single won't get it done. The Giants were hardly getting any hits off of Kim thus far -- why would they get an extra one just because Feliz was at 2nd? Also, Feliz doesn't run particularly well.
2. Linden is a power hitter. Sure, putting Feliz in scoring position means he's in better position to score the tying run. But Linden is capable of hitting a double or a home run, the first of which could probably tie the game on its own, the 2nd of which could put the Giants in the lead. The next two batters were Mike Matheny and Deivi Cruz, neither of whom is a hit-machine. Sacrificing Linden takes away this possibility, and gives away an out for free.
3. Having Linden sacrifice does absolutely nothing for his development, and could even hurt his confidence. Sure, he looked bad in his first two at-bats, but well, I dunno, is it an impossibility that Linden may have been able to...(gulp)...adjust? Isn't learning to adjust and apply what you've learned after facing a pitcher twice part of the game, and an integral part of a young player's growth?

I just hate the sacrifice in that situation. On top of everything else, it was the 7th inning -- don't you want to take a look at Kim in that inning to see if he might be gassed? Wild? Being a little tired often causes pitchers to hang breaking balls and mislocate fastballs -- were they that down on Linden that they think he wouldn't have been able to do something with a hanging breaking ball or a fastball mistakenly located in the zone?

If that's the case, perhaps he ought to go right back down to Fresno. There's no need for him here, now, because they obviously have no confidence in him at this point -- and how is he going to gain their confidence if they're giving away his opportunities to show something with sacrifice bunts?

And I didn't even get into the fact that selling out to try for an extra win by Felipe may also show that he, and the Giants organization, still believe they are in this pennant race, which would be folly on the highest order. That, as much as anything else, dictates you let Linden swing the bat -- the Giants are out of this race, so one extra opportunity to tie one ballgame isn't really worth it.

Well, I'm impressed

Matt Cain, he trow da ball real good an' stuff.

I was off by a wee bit on my prediction about Cain's line: 5 innings/3 hits/2 runs/4 bb/2 k's in a 2-1 loss to the Rockies.

Bit short on the innings (I said 6.2), way high on the hits allowed (I said 9), bit short on the runs (I said 2), dead-on on the walks (I said 4), and way short on the k's (I said 8).

But that's just fine, because I saw what I wanted to see: potential.

He held down the Rockies without his best stuff (he had particular trouble with the slider), and I'm sure there will be a little talk about his pitch selection before the next time he goes out, but overall, I'm impressed.

But you know who I'm even more impressed by at this moment? Jeremy Accardo. I'm trying to figure out how he has an ERA as high as 4.22 with the kind of numbers he's putting up: 21.1 innings/18 hits/ 4 bb/ 10 k's. He pitched 16 pitches last night, and 15 of 'em were strikes. As he gets more experience, I expect those strikeout totals to go up -- did any of you see the changeup he used to record his strikeout last night?

It was mo' stanky than 50 fat football players after playin' four hours in a sewer.

It's just too bad that the Giants are averaging 3.3 runs a game since the All-Star break, but couldn't even manage to hit their average last night. It seems like they can't get anymore than a couple of guys to hit every night, and they're on some kind of rotation so nobody is actually in a slump.

But they could go on a run anyday now!

What's in a name?

Daniel Smith. That's me. Daniel Smith. Most of you visiting here know that, of course. But I have yet to reveal all of my other interests to you besides blogging and poker. Behold...

This, and this, and this, and THIS, and this, and this, and this, and this, and this, and...WHOOPS! Almost forgot about this.

By typing in my name into Google (with quotes around), you get 207,000 results. Upon seeing that, I had two thoughts:

1. Boy, do I get around.
2. I wish parents would stop naming their kids after me.
3. My Evil plan to take over the world with Evil, different-looking doppelgangers is coming to it's slow, Evil conclusion.
4. I'm tired.
5. Yes, I know I said two thoughts, and this is number five. But as I put down those two thoughts, I had two more afterwards, and of course explaining the previous four thoughts is a thought in and of itself. Deal with it.

I am, inbetween my time writing at this blog, a wildlife photographer, a K-9 police officer, an architect, a baseball player, an MD, an angler, a master of fancy writing fonts, a retired general, an active colonel, a soccer player, a basoonist, an angler (but, apparently, a different angler than the previous one), run an art supply, a law firm, and have about 20 PhD's.

I didn't find the real me until page 16 of the search, which turned out to be my Blogger profile. At page 75, I hadn't seen one reference to this blog. After going through about 30 seconds of extreme depression laced with wild thoughts of campaigning to win the Nobel Peace Prize and thus trump the other Daniel Smiths in popularity, I realized something...

My name is not on my blog.

Yes, yes, it's in my blog, in a sense -- danieljsmith.blogspot.com. But it's smashed together there with a "j" in the middle, so that doesn't count. I have my first name in a couple of different places, but not with my last name.

How could I experiment searching for my blog with my first and last name, when my first and last name don't appear anywhere on my blog together? Talk about self-defeating.

The things that one does when one is bored at work.

Cain you feel it?

Matt Cain is pitching tonight. At the time the game is to start, I should be in the middle of driving home from work. Instead, I'm going to be at home, because I'm going to leave work early, so I won't be in the middle of driving home from work at the time the game is to start.

That's what I'm gonna do. All attempts to stop me will be met with extreme prejudiced. Or, feigned nonchalance -- I get the two mixed up sometimes.

I will predict his line:

6.2 innings/9 hits/3 runs/4 bb/8 k's

It will take him...94 pitches to do it. There's still time to catch a flight to Vegas...hurry!

Sad note

I'm making a change to the sidebar, but it's not by choice.

Mike Berquist, writer of the excellent A Citizen's Blog, has quit blogging on the Phillies. It looks as if he succumbed to something that threatens all bloggers -- simply not having enough time in his life to do it.

I'm going to replace it with a blog called Beer Leaguer, which is another Phillies blog written by Jason Weitzel, formerly of Berks Phillies Fans.

Can there be any doubt?

Noah Lowry. Pitcher of the Month for August.

Noah Lowry. San Francisco Giants staff ace.

Now, come the 2006 season, Jason Schmidt may still very easily get the ball Opening Day, and I don't think there should be a problem with that -- he's given this team a lot, and he's still pretty good. But Lowry is on another level right now, and truth be told, it's on the level that Schmidt was on in his previous three seasons.

Noah's line for the month reads like this: 39.1 innings/22 hits/3 earned runs/9 BB/33 k's/0.79 WHIP/0.69 ERA. He gave up only two extra-base hits of those 22 hits, both doubles.

Wow.

By the way...

Jason Christiansen is gone. Completely and absolutely missed that. Luckily Grant over at McCovey Chronicles noted it, and thus I was able to do this:

OH YEAH, BABY! OHHHHHHHH YYYYYYYYEAH!!!

More News

Michael Tucker has been traded to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Although I never talked about Tucker much, his presence on the team was as unnecessary as it could be. I've ranted about Todd Linden's lack of playing time recently, and Tucker was the roadblock.

He was dealt for Dominican minor leaguer Kelvim Pichardo, who's minor league statistics look like this. From what I can find on Pichardo, he's a right-handed flamethrower, as you might expect from looking at the stats. Oddly, I cannot for the life of me find out how old the kid is (edit: it looks like he's 19). He's definitely a while away from contributing at the major league level. He plays in the Gulf Coast League, which is rookie ball -- not even low-A ball yet -- but his arm is apparently so lively that if he keeps putting up those high k rates and low walk rates, he could shoot up through the system pretty quickly.

Most organizational charts that I've seen lists Pichardo around 20th or so on their pitching prospects depth chart. Interesting deal from my perspective -- just as he trades away a bunch of young pitching, Brian Sabean throws an arm back into the system. With all the things that could happen to a pitcher in the minors, it's impossible to tell what might become of Pichardo, but getting him for a month of Michael Tucker has to be viewed as a good deal, I think.

As a result of this move, O&B favorite Jason Ellison has been recalled from Fresno. Much as I like Ellison, most days of what's left of the season he ought to sit in favor of Linden, who needs to be allowed to collect at least 100 plate appearance in September.

Pure Excitement

Matt Cain's been called up.

As much as I've ragged on Brian Sabean, I cannot deny the excitement of having four out of five pitchers in the rotation being 25 years old or younger. It'd have been nice if Jerome Williams, David Aardsma, and Jesse Foppert were still around -- there'd be some depth in the pipeline.

That being said, it is going to be an interesting September. If Cain just happens to be lights out, what are the chances of having next year's rotation be Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, Kevin Correia, Brad Hennessey, and Cain?

Not very good, really, but...perhaps it's possible. It would certainly save the team a bunch of money in the free agent market, not having to go after another starting pitcher. If only they could find a way out of Edgardo Alfonzo's contract...

Note: thanks to Danimal, Kevin, and Bigfly for leaving a comment despite all the spamming that seems to have started here lately. I was thinking, perhaps, if I was quick to delete them out those bastards wouldn't come back. No such luck.

I'm going to have to exercise some controls here, and like Kevin suggested, I'll have to activate a word verification on the comments for a bit -- when you leave a comment, it'll ask you to type in a word in a box to verify that it's a real human being and not spamming software.

Sorry for the inconvenience, but I'm sure you all would rather type in a word in a box than navigate through five comments from people trying to sell you pharmaceuticals or trying to get you to refinance your home.

Giants lose, but I'm happy...well, almost

Kevin Correia. Wow. Nice game.

I wrote just two days ago about Correia, and how his control and tendency to give up home runs were roadblocks to him being good enough to be given a starting spot next season, but how his strikeout ability meant that if he did overcome those roadblocks, he'd have a chance to be pretty good.

Enter the New York Mets on August 26th.

He did give up a home run, and it turned out to be the winning run, too, but I don't see Correia giving up a solo home run and nothing else as being something to get down about.

I've been waiting for a game like this from Correia, because when doing a comparison between him and one of the other young Giants hopeful, Brad Hennessey, it was a bit difficult to sell people on Correia having a higher ceiling as a pitcher. Hennessey has had a few games where he's been able to show what he can do when he's on, but Correia hadn't been able to put it all together before last night. Neat.

On another note, I am getting very impatient with the Giants' inability to see that the season is over. Last night was the 4th game in the last five where Todd Linden has not started, and honestly, it's pissing me off. There is absolutely no reason, other than stupidity, to not play Linden at this point. One of two things are obvious:

1. The Giants don't think they're out of this race, despite still having the same three teams in front of them, and despite not having made up any ground whatsoever in a month's time.
2. The "Brain" Sabean obviously has no intentions of considering whether or not Linden is actually capable of being his 4th outfielder next year -- his starting outfield is set for next year with a man who hasn't played in a year in Barry Bonds, his new pickup Randy Winn, and a 39-going-on-40 Moises Alou. Hey Sabes, don't you think it'd be a good idea to find out if Linden is capable of starting if say, one of your 40 year-old corner outfielder gets too old or goes down with injury next year? Nah, that's too farfetched, isn't it? I'm going to predict Sabean goes out and overpays for some 4th outfielder out on the free agent market, and Linden and Jason Ellison will be fighting for the 5th outfield/pinch runner role next season.

As I finished typing that 2nd point above, the Royals blow another big 9th inning lead, this time to the Yankees, and lose. Up 7-3 in the 9th at Yankees Stadium, they can't find a way to win.

What a lovely year -- I'm the fan of two of the worst teams in baseball. Can't wait for football season, where I'm the fan of the last year's worst team in the NFL, the San Francisco 49ers. Oh, and basketball season, where my favorite team, the Golden State Warriors, haven't had a winning season in a decade (although there is quite a bit of hope this year, I'll admit).

I'm such a lucky guy.

T-Shirts. Cool.

Another plug - Anthony di Giorgio (yes, everyone, that is a male runway model's name) is taking pre-orders for his Father Alou Cream of Wheat t-shirts over at his site.

The pre-ordering page is this one. In his words, "Go ahead, waste your money".

And with that warning, I still bought one. The damned thing doesn't even glow-in-the-dark, it's made of cotton, of all materials (why not Chinese Silk?), and won't protect you from sub-freezing temperatures.

What the heck was I thinking?

Fights I'd Like to See, Part III

More "classic" O&B stuff, with part 1 of this series here, and part 2 over here.

I don't know, really, what else I can say about Milton Bradley and Sydney Ponson that I already haven't said, but they just keep giving me new material. Bradley with his race-related rants, and Ponson with his desire to drink and drive.

I'd like to get them in the ring to duke it out, but there's a problem -- in addition to being my frequent targets of cynical sarcasm (if such a thing exists), they share something else: pain.

Ponson is currently on the DL for the Orioles, and Bradley is about to go on the DL and will likely miss the rest of the season. Shucks, there goes my Pay-Per-View revenue.

Bradley's issue can't come as a big surprise, simply because he had been in no trouble all year -- something had to be building up. Being that his racial remarks came at the expense of another jerk in Jeff Kent is just icing on the cake. Bradley should've found a way to include Uber-Jerk Jeff Weaver, too, but he must've missed my memo.

Can there be any doubt that Bradley is an idiot of the highest caliber? Kent chews out Bradley for not scoring from first on a double that Kent hit, then Bradley takes that to the level of Kent not knowing "how to deal with African-American people". Why does he have to "deal" with African-American people, Milton? Why can't he just deal with "people"?

Somebody get Emeril, because Bradley kicked it up about 27 notches with that dash of Cayenne Pepper.

It's stupid on Bradley's part, but it's often even funnier to hear the responses. Here's part of Kent's response: "That's a shame, and I take offense to that. That's just absolutely pathetic if it comes from his mouth."

And what, Jeff, it's not pathetic if it comes from his sphincter or his nostril? No, I guess that'd just be hilarious.

The thing is, I don't really fault Bradley for being irritated with Kent -- I'm sure Kent, being the jerk that he is, has done things to legitimately annoy Bradley. But to go from that to Caucasian-to-African-American player relations is silly. Bradley even went so far as to accuse the media of coming to his locker first because he's Black.

No, Milton, they came to you first because they knew something asinine would fly out of your mouth before Kent's. Instant story.

Anyhow, onto Ponson, the Judge-Puncher. He's gotten two DUI's and gotten into two physical altercations in the span of one year, he's got a 6.21 ERA with a WHIP of 1.73, he allows opposing hitters to bat .331 against him...

...and he makes 8.5 million dollars. Heh, and we worry about how overpaid Edgardo Alfonzo is.

Forget Eric Milton, Ponson easily has the worst contract in the majors. And to top it all off, he isn't even the most scandalous player on his team. That honor goes to Rafael Palmeiro at the moment, so Ponson can screw up like this and not even come close to the front page. The Orioles have a hugely overpaid punk in Ponson, a disgraced former Hall of Fame candidate in Palmeiro, and even have Mr. Corked Bat in Sammy Sosa.

Is it any wonder these guys fell out of the race? I feel sorry for Miguel Tejada.

Blatant Advertising

...I'm attempting to think of something witty and humorous. Bide a moment.

...

No, still nothing. So, in lieu of something that might actually pique your interest in what I'm about to plug, I'm just going to put the link up sans superfluous banter:


http://www.tixtrade.com/

The windup, and here's the pitch: "You can buy or sell Giants tickets from other Giants fans for free at www.tixtrade.com. Join in on the fun and start building feedback within the community. Its a great resource for Giants fans and will surely become a reliable place to find great tickets."

I've taken a look at the site, and it's simple. You click on what Bay Area sporting event tickets you are after, and a list comes up with all the available tickets, the location of the seats, and the location of who's selling them.

I mean, do I need to explain any more? I'm sure some of you can find a way to take advantage of this at some point, which is why I'm putting the link up on that thar sidebar, so that you won't screw up and forget about it...okay, in reality, I'm putting the link up so that I won't forget about it.

A comparison

As the season runs along...hm.

Okay, as the season stumbles along, the thought has occurred to me, over and over again, that the Giants will probably want to make a change or three next season if they desire to achieve a better won/loss record.

Call me Captain Obvious.

A couple/few of these changes will have to occur within the starting rotation. Besides Jason Schmidt and Noah Lowry, I really can't see any of the other pitchers currently starting for the Giants having some sort of lock on a spot next season. Brett Tomko's got to go, or a least take a paycut to league minimum, while Brad Hennessey and Kevin Correia are currently starting by default -- though I'm sure they think they are making a debut for next season. It's possible, but I can't see an effort to replace them in the free agent market this winter not happening. Brian Sabean won't want to depend on them next year unless they had pitched lights out this year, which hasn't happened.

But, really, would this be worth it? Trying to find any decent free agent starting pitcher is tough nowadays (just ask the Mets, Yankees, Reds about Kris Benson, Jaret Wright, or Eric Milton). So trying to find three has got to be well-nigh impossible, right?

Of course.

So Sabes, in reality, is faced with putting one of those three mentioned above (Tomko, Hennessey, and Correia) in his rotation next year, if not two. But is there any of them that he might be able to depend upon? Let's break them down and see what we can see...

Brett Tomko - No, he isn't going to ever figure it out. As much as we like to get upset with Tomko, we really have no reason to, because he's doing now what he's done pretty much every year. The only difference is the tease he gave us late last season where he was lights out. Otherwise, his k/bb ratio (strikeout to walk ratio) this year is at 1.74, which is one of the lower numbers of his career. His k/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings) is at 5.11, which is also one of his lower rates for his career. Opposing hitters are running an .811 OPS against him, which is one of the highest totals of his career. His ERA is 4.93, which again, is one of the higher totals of his career. As I've said before, Tomko is a 5th starter, regardless of his stuff or the velocity on his fastball. The only thing is, his numbers this year are among the worst they've ever been, so it may be wiser to let him go before it gets any worse. A move to the bullpen could help his career, but not making well over $2 million.

Kevin Correia - This one is relatively simple. It's all about walk rates and dampening power for Correia, as he's walking a batter at a rate higher than one every other inning this year (5.3 per 9 innings), and opponents are SLG .542 against him this year. In his other stints in 2003 and 2004, there isn't anything there to suggest that he might not actually be this bad. His career walk rate is 4.7 per 9 innings, and opposing hitter have SLG'd .506 when you include Correia's previous years.

The tantalizer? The stuff, and the strikeouts. Correia's got the pitches, but can't always locate them. However, his strikeout rate has been rising slightly with each stint he's been with the Giants: 6.41 in 2003, 6.63 in 2004, and 6.80 so far in 2005.

Can he be trusted? Heck, no. Even as a 5th starter, the way Correia's numbers stand right now, he's unacceptable. He's got to cut down on the walks to somewhere less than 4 per 9 innings, at least, and that opponents' SLG has got to come down to at least .450 or less -- then, we can talk. While it's easy to be tempted because of his stuff and how cheap he'll be, I would want him to show some progress towards cutting those numbers down in the five or six starts Correia likely has remaining this season.

Brad Hennessey - This one is simple as well. Hennessey has all of the same problems Correia has, only without the electric stuff and the strikeout ability. His walk rate is actually a bit lower than Correia's (4.35 per 9 innings), but when you compare that with his low-ish strikeout rate (5 per 9), then it's a bit of a problem. Hennessey actually struck out hitters at a higher rate last year (6.55), but it was a tiny sample size of 34 innings, plus his minor league stats suggest his k rate this year is more in line with what he's capable of.

Hennessey's also have trouble with dampening power, as hitters are running a .518 SLG against him.

So, essentially, you can't trust Hennessey, either. He also has to cut down his walks tremendously to support that lower strikeout rate, and he also needs to stop giving up extra-base hits before you can throw him out there for a full season.

The main difference between Hennessey and Correia is that Hennessey has several quality starts mixed in with his otherwise horrible outings, so the knee-jerk reaction is to grab ahold of those and use that as a body of evidence saying they are indicative of Hennessey's ceiling, or potential, as a pitcher. Correia, on the other hand, has been consistent in mediocrity, with only the strikeouts as an indicator that he could potentially do better things down the line.

My opinion? Hennessey has better control, but Correia has the better strikeout ability, so my tendency is to go with Correia over Hennessey over the longer haul. In the short term, neither of these two have provided much to suggest they can be trusted over a full season, but Hennessey has shown the ability to be the better pitcher (as opposed to thrower). So I think that unless there is one of these two pitches much better or much worse in September, Hennessey will be tentatively slotted for a rotation spot next Spring.

...

I'd talk about the game last night, if it wasn't for the fact that I don't really want to talk about the game last night.

But hey, for nostalgic, classic O&B article, check out this old rant on Jason Christiansen that I wrote way back in March.

A Rant on Christiansen, by Daniel Smith

To touch on other things...

• Hey, who runs the advertising/marketing division of Chrysler nowadays? They have a brilliant ad campaign going right now with Lee Iacocca, former chairman of the automobile manufacturer. Only problem is...it's already been done. Back in the 80's. Bunch o' sharp tools in that shed. Bring back an old, boring figurehead that none of the young, new carbuyers will even recognize, don't explain who he is, and then hope that it will sell some cars if you throw in Snoop Dogg into one of the commercials (that golf cart sittin' on chrome was kinda nice, though).
• Cute little fluff article on ESPN.com about Julio Franco, who turned 47 yesterday. I think what Franco is doing is amazing, but...well, makes me wonder. How is it that players like him and Steve Finley seem to have avoided any steroid talk? I mean, here are players in their 40's still playing at a high level (well, Finley was doing that as recently as last year), and yet no talk, no accusations? Finley had a pretty big power spike last year at 40 years old, but I don't see him talked about much. Franco is 47, five years older than Bonds, and by all accounts, he's muscled like a housewife's fantasy. Don't get me wrong -- I'd rather there be no talk about these guys, because there isn't any concrete proof that they've done these things or how much it could've helped them, just like Barry Bonds. But things like this bring to light just how much of a witch-hunt people are on in regards to Bonds...it's all about the home runs and the attitude. Finley and Franco aren't threatening any hallowed records, and haven't offended a slew of media guys, so they are exempt.
• This was about the funniest thing I've ever read.

If Todd Linden doesn't start tonight, tomorrow will be Rip-A-Manager/GM Day here at O&B Baseball. Just so you are forewarned...also, relating to Jason Christiansen to Brett Tomko, I had an anonymous suggestion that I start a campaign to jettison both of those worthies to the abyss. With Christiansen, there can be no doubt. Tomko, I'll have to consider for some several moments before deciding.

Keep an eye on that thar sidebar...which you should be doing anyway. We're up to 61 days since the "Brain" Sabean should've let As-Useful-On-The-Ballfield-As-A-Douchebag-Is-To-A-Man Alex Sanchez go. Sanchez is at Fresno, wasting somebody's time and energy, still drawing a paycheck from this organization.

Shame 'bout that.

Note to self

___________________________________
Dear Self,

Brett Tomko is not good. There is nothing good he does on the mound to merit the consideration of him possibly being good.

Self, please don't talk about Tomko's "stuff" anymore -- banish such thoughts from straying into the vast wasteland that often doubles as your mind. Tomko's well into his 30's, and if he were to magically "get it" or "put it all together", it would've happened somewhere around April...of 2001.

Tomko could be a serviceable 5th starter if he made league minimum, but that's it, Self. No more.

Sincerely,

Your other self (no, not THAT one, the other one)
___________________________________


Fourth inning, and here comes Mr. MopUp, Jeff Fassero, who is probably going to throw four shutout innings to solidy the "Brain" Sabean's likely growing inclination to sign the 52,674 year-old lefty hander (edit: I lied, it only ended up being three shutout innings), despite the fact that the list of successful 40-plus year-old pitchers is very short, and usually has names like Johnson and Clemens on it.

Tomko, after he was taken out after the 3rd, did the obligatory abuse the Gatorade container (edit: found out the damned thing was a sunflower seed bucket...whatever)...hey, why is it that there's always an empty one of those things just lying around for frustrated ballplayers to kick? I mean, it's the 3rd inning -- shouldn't that thing still be full of Gatorade? Are there ever frustrated-ballplayer-tirades that are cut short because a guy goes to kick the Gatorade container, only to find it still full of lemon-lime refreshment?

What does the ballplayer do afterwards? Is there a frustrated-object hierarchy that we don't know about?

1. Gatorade container
2. Batting helmets
3. Bats
4. Gloves
5. If none of the above are close by...
6. Cameramen (how's the post-cameraman-abuse pitching going, Kenny?)

The answers to these and many other questions plague me...

UPDATE: As I watched Todd Linden hit a double as a pinch-hitter, I marvelled -- how quickly the Giants get off the young guys. Linden was getting hot, had a four-strikeout game, then promptly had his starting job taken for what...three straight games now? I mean, I would normally be able to buy the Michael Tucker-is-a-left-handed-hitter argument, but Linden switch-hits...

And into the game again comes the uber-useless Jason Christiansen, who will promptly allow a run to cancel out the run the Giants just scored in the bottom of the 6th to pull within three. I call it! (edit: I lied again, as Christiansen has already allowed two runs while only recording one out, and there is a man on 3rd)

Would it be that hard to let Christiansen go? He's only due around $250K on his deal -- he's a sunk cost. Why not cut bait on him? Why keep him? (edit: I just felt like adding another one of these edit-thingies in here just for good measure, in case I didn't have enough already)

Alright, ALRIGHT! He's the fricking ace, okay?

Should've smelled this one coming. Yesterday I was stupid enough to type this load of crap out:

He's a shaky ace at best. I've heard a lot of people lately giving Noah Lowry ace status, which is just a bit silly. Lowry's good and getting better, and make no mistake, he's pitched better than Schmidt overall this season (and at the end of last season, too). But to call him the "ace" and kick Schmidt to the curb at this point is premature. It certainly looks that way for right now, but I'd rather wait until about June of next season, personally.

That was just about the stupidest thing I've ever said, and I've said quite a few stupid things. The very same day I type that, Noah Lowry goes out and throws 8 2/3 innings of shutout ball, walking only one and striking out six.

For my next trick, I'll turn wine into water, and slowly melt the polar icecaps over the course of 14,238 years.

Noah's got one more start this month, and I'm wondering how, short of a disastrous start, that he doesn't land NL Pitcher of the Month. This month so far, he's pitched 31 1/3 innings, allowing two runs (that's two - dos, deux, due, zwei, twee, kaksi, randu...TWO!) on 13 hits, and striking out 27 while walking only eight. He's allowed two runs, but heck, Lowry himself has driven in two runs of his own this month.

His WHIP for the month is 0.67. He's allowed one double during the month, and that's the only extra-base hit he's allowed. Heck, Lowry himself has hit a double of his own this month (is there an echo in here?). His ERA this month is going to be something stupid like 0.60 or something like that after last night's game.

Near as I can tell with my rough calculations, hitters have hit about .110 against Lowry and SLG'd about .119 this month. Heck, Lowry himself has hit .333 and SLG'd .444 this month (damn echo again).

So, not only has Noah Lowry outpitched his opposition this month, he's outhit his opposition this month. That's gotta be illegal in like, 37 states or something.

Noah Lowry. Ace. There, I said it.

Finally had the courage to look...

And yep! There it is.

The Giants see the fewest amount of pitches in the major leagues.

Ah, and there that is.

The Giants have the worst ISO SLG in the league, meaning they hit for the least power in the major leagues.

But here is a bit of hope.

The Giants are only 24th (out of 30) in walks per plate appearance (bb/pa).

What does all of that add up to? This, of course.

The Giants are 3rd to last in the league in runs.

Many like to blow stats off, and say they aren't important (*cough* Joe Morgan *cough*). But I'm a bit clueless as to how the stats listed above cannot tell a story about this year's team.

• They see the least amount of pitches per plate appearance, meaning they are the most impatient.
• They are worst in the league at hitting for power.
• They are among the league's worst in drawing walks.

What, did they run afoul of the Plate Discipline Nazi? No plate discipline for you!

When you don't see a lot of pitches in an at-bat, unless your name is Vladimir Guerrero or Ichiro Suzuki, chances are you are not getting your pitch in your zone to swing at. Most pitchers won't give in to a batter in four pitches. It means you're swinging at the first pitch you see in the zone, or, swinging at the first pitch you think is in the zone. This usually means you're not putting your best swing on the ball, because you haven't seen enough pitches from the pitcher to properly guage the velocity and movement of the pitches. Which means that even when you do make contact, it will not be solid contact.

Which means that even if you do get a hit, it won't be an extra-base hit.

At this point in the year, I'm sure it's in all the scouting reports that you don't have to pitch strikes to the Giants to get them out. Just pitch to a location off the plate with your fastballs, and pitch breaking stuff and changeups otherwise -- they'll get themselves out.

Ewwww.

It really is simple. The Giants draw among the fewest walks in the league because they are not patient at the plate. The Giants hit for the least amount of power in the league because they are not patient at the plate. The Giants are the 3rd worst team in the league in scoring because they are not patient at the plate.

And remember, Mike Matheny won't hit like this next year, and Randy Winn can't hit like this for an entire season, and Moises Alou, Ray Durham, and Omar Vizquel are all due regressions because of advancing age...

It looks decidedly Not-Good for next season.