Sunday, July 31, 2005

Speaking of useless outfielders...

Randy Winn?

Are you kidding me? There's still a day to go, yes, but tell me this isn't our blockbuster deal for this season!

Randy Winn? The epitome of replacement level? Winn, whose numbers have done nothing but decline the last three years? Winn, who isn't anything to write home about defensively?

You just knew "Brain Sabean" was going to trade some young pitching, but...for Randy Winn? Jesse Foppert wasn't exactly a top-notch prospect anymore, but I'd have questioned this move even if it was just Foppert for Winn straight-up. But by the time you add in Yorvit Torreabla, and it's plain to see Sabean has lost it.

Even if Foppert and/or Torreabla do nothing the rest of their careers, this is a stupid trade, because Winn just cannot do anything to help this club. He's just not good enough.

Let's see how stupid this trade was by breaking down all the things that Winn can't do.
  1. First of all, a team that leads the majors currently in GIDP's (grounding into double plays) should not go out and get a guy with a 1.77 g/f ratio (ground balls to fly balls). It's just silly. It means that the Giants will now be even more likely to hit into double plays. What, Sabes, are you missing A.J. Piersynski or something?
  2. Winn can't play centerfield. Oh, he can play the position, technically, but he won't be any better out there than Michael Tucker. It's very, very well known Winn has problems anytime he does more than spot duty in CF. He's an adequate corner outfielder defensively, but c'mon folks -- we know Sabean is looking for an excuse to replace Jason Ellison in center. Again, it's not that Elly is great out there, but Sabean keeps bringing in players who simply are not any better, whether one wants to use scouting or performance analysis as your barometer.
  3. Winn cannot hit for power. Carrying a SLG percentage of less than .400 is our first clue that he just doesn't have a lot of pop. I'd take Pedro Feliz in LF over Winn, and I'd take Tucker in RF over Winn, which shows what my opinion of Winn's ability is.
  4. Winn can't get any better. In fact, he's getting appreciably worse every, single year. Let me break it down to you from 2002 to 2005: batting average (.298, .295, .286, .275), and SLG (.461, .425, .427, .391).

Now comes the rub for me. Is Winn a better player than Jason Ellison? No. He's a little better offensively (his being a switch-hitter helps, and he's better against right-handed pitching than Elly easily), but he doesn't have near the raw ability defensively Elly has. Elly did have a problem with errors, but hasn't made any in quite a while -- he seems confident in CF, and there just isn't any question he has more range and a better throwing arm than Winn. So a slight edge offensively I can give to Winn, but it's nullified by Elly being more useful in the outfield.

Do you see why I think this move is stupid? It could have some merit if...IF Sabean moves Edgardo Alfonzo somehow tomorrow, so that Feliz can just play 3rd base and he can just throw Winn into LF full-time. But ther merit wouldn't be a better baseball team, it would be the merit of getting rid of Fonzie's contract. The team wouldn't be any better.

I'm assuming this means that Alex Sanchez really, really (oh Lord, please, REALLY) is on his way out as soon as his "injury" time on the DL is over, and perhaps it spells the doom of Marquis Grissom, too, I don't know.

This move depresses me. It's just one that didn't need to be made, because it does nothing for this team. I wish Winn well, of course, and will be cheering him on every at-bat he gets (he's a very, very nice guy from all I've heard and read), but I just don't like what this tells me about Sabes -- it tells me I've had him pegged for a while now, and that more silly moves may very well follow. The future of the ballclub is in the hands of a man who just doesn't get it.

5 comments:

Nick Schulte said...

Daniel,

Some of us Sacramento folks decided to dedicate our next pass across the Causeway to crying ourselves to sleep. This doesn't count as crying in baseball, right?, RIGHT?!?

Who am I kidding?

Does anyone still have hope for 2006? I think there's reason. I do, I'm serious.

I need to collect myself before I make an intelligent post, but I'll do it, and I'll make it Giantopoly optimistic (by the way have any of you played Giantopoly? It's the best game EVER!!, especially with a good beer bong penalty), because that's my goal, and it can be done.

Oh, yes, it can be done.

TJW said...

the utter shock and dismay of watching my favorite pitching prospect for the giants and a young catcher leave for fuckin randy winn made me about loose it. I cant stand watching some fat retarded yokel (sabean) trade away or sign any more half ass outfielders. How many #4 outfielders do the giants have... is it like a competition to see that we collect the most.


after living in the seattle area for the first half of the season, i can only laugh at the ridicule winn was shown from the home town. No one wanted him, he was a complete dog for the team... now luckily enough we can enjoy him
fuck...

Nick Schulte said...

Attempt at optimism:

2006
2B Durham
SS Vizquel
LF Bonds
RF Alou
1B Niekro/Feliz
3B Feliz/Alfonzo
CF Winn
C Matheny

P Schmidt
P Lowry
P ????
P Cain
P ????

RP Benitez
RP Walker
RP Hawkins
RP Eyre?? (Free Agent)
RP Munter
RP Accardo
RP Taschner

Our bullpen looks decent and our lineup will score a lot of runs if Bonds plays like Superman. I'm guessing they won't really bat him third but I couldn't pick anyone I really wanted there, maybe Durham with batting Winn 1st or 2nd. If Winn doesn't play CF then I have no idea what this trade was even trying to accomplish. It would make sense to trade Alfonzo/Feliz for pitching, why do I have the feeling that both will be Giants next year? Our starting rotation is the biggest question mark for next year. Besides if everyone will be healthy. But for right now I'm assuming health, not the smartest move but the most optimistic.

So, who will the starting pitchers be?

Aaron said...

Yeah not too much into this trade either, although it's not making me want to slit my throat like many other Giants fans whose comments I've read so far. My biggest concern is who does this leave as our leadoff hitter. It's not Winn he strikesout way too much(16.1%), so I'm assuming Vizquel or Durham. Vizquel has a .408 obs in 70 ab, Durham a .333 in 84 ab as opposed to .397 batting 5th(166 ab). They both strikeout in the 11% range. As far as the comparison of Winn to Ellison it's pretty much right on, statistically they are very similar and Elly probably is better suited to play CF. The only positive I can think of is Tropicana field was ranked 27th, Safeco 20th, and SBC 13th based on '94 stats so maybe he will hit better here. So basically don't understand this trade, unless he follows up with something brillant today.

Daniel said...

Thanks for the commentary, guys.

Nick, that lineup looks just like any other lineup the Giants have trotted out in the 2000's. Bonds and Bunch of Dudes. Honestly, the end is very near for Moises Alou -- can't count on him at nigh-40 year old.

TJW, yeah. Winn is just another 4th outfielder starting for the Giants, and another band-aid on a bullet wound.

Aaron, what the reality with Winn is doesn't matter. His numbers don't make him much of a leadoff hitter, and his defense makes him a questionable CF.

But guess what? They just said today Felipe Alou's going to make Winn his everyday CF, and he's likely to hit leadoff. Go figure.